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Global economy: a hesitant and uneven recovery

 

The OECD has just published its latest short term economic outlook. It concludes that the global economy is not out of the woods.   GDP growth in the organizations’ countries are expected to reach 1.4% next year and 2.3% in 2014.

 

Despite the OECD’s optimism regarding the long term economy in Canada, 2013 is expected to be a relatively disappointing year, though above world average: growth of 1.8% was announced…   This forecast is lower than that of the Bank of Canada (2.3%). For 2014, growth is expected to reach 2.4%.

 

In the United States, GDP growth will in principle amount to 2% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014. The economy’s champion, China, is expected to post 8.5% and 8.9% growth in 2013 and 2014 respectively. For Europe, the situation is much less enviable: the OECD is still announcing negative growth for next year before a recovery (1.3%) in 2014.

 

Unemployment falling in Canada

The report also looks at the unemployment rate in member countries. After peaking for two years in Canada (8% in 2010, 7.5% in 2011 and 7.3% in 2012 according to provisional estimates), it is expected to continue to drop, falling below 7% in 2014. The figures are encouraging compared to the average, since in all OECD countries the unemployment rate will stay above 7.5%. The average hides significant disparities, with European countries ranging between 11% and 12% and Japan remaining below 5%. 

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